Fat loss is decided by one thing: how far each day lands below your maintenance of ~2,400 kcal. Stack more green than red and the belly has no choice. That is the whole game.
You eat ~1,900. Your body still needs ~500 more, so it pulls them out of stored fat: ≈ 65 g of fat gone, guaranteed, while you sleep.
Still under maintenance, so fat is still burning: just less of it (≈ 10–50 g). Not a failure. A slow day, not a lost one.
You ate everything you burn. Break-even: 0 g of fat leaves. A red day never undoes a green one; it just wastes the date.
The compounding: 1 green day ≈ 65 g of pure fat · 7 in a row ≈ 0.45 kg per week · that pace lands Troy in March.
Solid line: 7-day average, the only number worth judging. Dashed: the 1,900 cut line. Red rule: 2,400 maintenance. Hover any bar for the day's detail.